Implications of Chinese Capital Account Liberalisation

Implications of Chinese Capital Account Liberalisation If China does liberalise, few other events over the next decade are likely to have more impact on the shape of the global financial system. This also sets out a conceptual framework, identifying three separate factors which help explain why the scale of the subsequent movements in capital flows — both into and out of China — could be very large relative to the size of the world economy: (i) ‘Closing the openness gap’- There is a large gap between China’s current level of openness and that of advanced economies. Liberalisation will lead this gap to close, generating large flows in the process. (ii) ‘Catch-up growth’- China’s economic growth is expected to be relatively high over the next decade. So even if China’s capital flows do not increase relative to its own economy, they will relative to the world economy. (iii)‘Declining home bias’- Prior to the recent crisis, the global financial system became increasingly integrated. A resumption of these trends over coming decades would lead capital flows to increase both in China and globally. Summary chart Potential impact of capital account liberalisation on China’s international investment position Based on these three factors and some simple but plausible assumptions, the summary chart shows a hypothetical scenario for China’s global financial integration in 2025. It shows that China’s gross international investment position could increase from around 5% to over 30% of world GDP. The global financial integration of China has the potential to be a force for economic growth and financial stability not just in China but also globally. Global implications of Chinese capital account liberalisation The potential changes in both the magnitude and composition of capital flows outlined in the previous section would dramatically alter the financial landscape both in China and globally. In principle, capital account liberalisation in China could be a powerful force that enables the Chinese and global Implications for China For China, there are several potential benefits of liberalisation which can all be viewed through the broader lens of contributing to economic rebalancing. The Chinese economy is now starting to transition to a new model of growth, away from reliance on exports and investment as the key sources of demand. The new model of growth will therefore place a greater emphasis on consumption as a source of demand and an increase in the production of services relative to exportable manufactures. This is a challenging task and will require an ambitious agenda of structural reforms. Among these reforms, capital account liberalisation will play a key role. A removal of restrictions on outflows, for example, will allow Chinese companies and households to diversify their large pools of savings by investing in overseas assets. This should help to spread risk, reducing the need for precautionary saving and hence free up income for current spending. And it may also boost household income if returns earned on overseas assets are higher than on domestic assets (which is likely given that real deposit rates in China are currently negative due to  regulatory caps). China has the biggest banking system in the world by total assets but it is very domestically focused. If China’s banks were to diversify their balance sheets by expanding abroad — either directly through cross-border bank lending, or indirectly through lending to foreign affiliates — they may become more resilient to an adverse shock in their home market and so be better able to maintain lending to domestic companies and households in China. Allowing more channels for inflows, on the other hand, will help to deepen and diversify China’s financial system, providing alternative sources of capital for Chinese borrowers. Should liberalisation also lead to lower reserve accumulation, it could lead to an improvement in China’s fiscal balance since the return on its FX reserves is lower than the cost of sterilising those purchases. And if it were accompanied by a more flexible exchange rate regime (as was suggested by the Third Plenum), it could allow China to operate a more effective monetary policy, increasing its ability to respond to domestic shocks. All of these factors should promote China’s rebalancing and its transition towards a new model of growth. But there are also risks. There are several notable examples where capital account liberalisation has resulted in instability. The most recent, perhaps, was the Eastern European countries where large capital inflows contributed to unsustainably rapid cr edit growth that ultimately culminated in economic and financial crisis in 2008 (Bakker and Gulde (2010)). Chinese policymakers will need to ensure they have sufficient scope to set policy to offset shocks that could pose risks to economic and financial stability. It will be particularly important to sequence carefully external liberalisation with appropriate domestic macroprudential and microprudential policies to mitigate risks from excessive credit growth and asset price volatility. One concern is that by opening the financial gates, some banks and, ultimately, borrowers in the Chinese real economy may find themselves faced with a shortage of liquidity. China’s banking system is heavily reliant on domestic deposits for its funding, which account for around two thirds of total liabilities. A reallocation overseas of even a small share of these deposits could therefore cause funding difficulties. By  enabling higher real returns for Chinese domestic savers, however, domest ic interest rate liberalisation could help to reduce these risks. Another set of risks are related to inflows. In the short run, there could be indigestion in China’s asset markets, which are still small relative to potentially large inflows of capital. And over a longer time period, inflows could lead to an unsustainable build-up of maturity and currency mismatches in national balance sheets (for example, long-term domestic investment funded by short-term overseas FX-denominated borrowing). Large mismatches are susceptible to unwind in a disorderly way, as was the case for some Asian economies in 1997–98. Finally, the risks arising from a more flexible — and potentially more volatile — exchange rate would need to be effectively managed. Which of these outcomes — more sustainable growth or a rise in instability — would dominate will depend on the accompanying policy framework. The empirical evidence on the costs and benefits of financial openness tends to suggest that countries benefit most when certain threshold conditions — such as a well-developed and supervised financial sector and sound institutions and macroeconomic policies — are in place before opening up to large-scale flows of capital (Kose et al (2006)). This underscores the importance in China of careful sequencing of capital account liberalisation alongside other domestic reforms such as domestic interest rate liberalisation, development of effective hedging instruments and enhancing the microprudential and macroprudential regimes. Implications for the rest of the world From the perspective of policymakers outside of China, it is important to understand how capital account liberalisation might ‘spill over’ to affect other economies. Four such channels are discussed below, although there are undoubtedly others. Greater exposure to the Chinese financial system If liberalisation has a large impact on the Chinese economy or financial system, it is also likely to have a significant impact in other countries as well. Although China’s economy is already considered able to generate material spillovers onto other economies (International Monetary Fund (2011b)), the process of capital account liberalisation will likely increase its systemic importance even further, by magnifying existing transmission channels, while also creating new ones. Foreign households, businesses and financial institutions will increase the amount and the number of their claims on China, while those in China will do the same with respect to the outside world, thereb y deepening the complex web of financial interconnectedness. If China does hard-wire itself into the global financial system, it will bring important benefits in terms of risk-sharing. Households that purchase Chinese assets whose returns are not perfectly correlated with their own income would be better able to smooth consumption. And foreign banks that  expand in China would diversify their earnings base and potentially enhance their resilience. The flipside of increased interconnectedness, however, is that the global financial system will be more sensitive to shocks originating in China. Increased holdings of Chinese assets, for example, would imply greater exposure to fluctuations in their price. Greater reliance of global banks on Chinese banks for  funding, in turn, would bring about the possibility of a liquidity shortage if those banks were to repatriate funds in response to balance sheet pressures back home.(1) Increase in global liquidity If China’s financial walls are lifted, some of its vast pool of domestic savings will migrate into global capital markets, providing a significant boost to liquidity. The illustrative scenario in Chart 5 suggests that these flows could amount to a substantial share of world GDP. A new source of global liquidity from China could lead to several beneficial effects, particularly during a period where the world’s financial system is becoming increasingly fragmented and retreating into national borders (Carney (2013b)). As well as providing a new source of finance for borrowers, it could lead to a more diversified and more stable global investor base. At the same time, however, a rapid increase in liquidity from China could lead to absorption pressures in some asset markets in the short run, which could lead to a mispricing of risk with adverse consequences for financial stability. Increased global role of the renminbi Greater international use of the renminbi would add another dimension to the global impact of capital account liberalisation. Potential benefits include lower transaction costs and a reduced risk of currency mismatches. But it may also amplify the international transmission of Chinese policy and domestic shocks, of which policymakers around the world will need to take into account. Take the following hypothetical case: a country purchases a large proportion of its imports from China and its currency depreciates against the renminbi. If the prices of those imports are set and invoiced in the domestic currency of that country, the depreciation would not automatically lead to an increase in their price and hence no response in domestic monetary and fiscal policy would be needed.(2) If, however, the imports were invoiced in RMB, then their price would increase in line with the exchange rate depreciation, leading to domestic inflation. Moreover, a country that had no trade with China but whose imports were set and invoiced in RMB — such that the RMB would be a ‘vehicle currency’ — would need to respond to macroeconomic or policy fluctuations in China that affect the exchange rate and feed through into domestic prices of that country. There is a body of literature which finds evidence of these invoicing effects for the US dollar, as the world’s most international currency. Goldberg (2010) finds that for non-US economies, large use of the US dollar in reserves and in international transactions is typically associated with greater sensitivity of trade, inflation and asset values to movements in the value of the dollar relative to the domestic currency. However, as discussed above, it would likely take much longer than a decade for the renminbi to take on a similar role to that of the US dollar today. Global imbalances The literature on the causes and consequences of global imbalances is as vast as it is inconclusive. According to one influential perspective, the large imbalances in current account positions that accumulated over the past decade partly originated in high net saving rates in developing Asian countries (Bernanke (2005). If true, capital account liberalisation in China could potentially help to alleviate these imbalances to the extent that it leads to a reduction in China’s net savings and correspondingly its current account surplus (although clearly the impact of this on overall imbalances would depend on the corresponding adjustment in other countries). This may occur either because liberalisation lowers the incentives for precautionary saving or because it leads to a more flexible and higher exchange rate. But even if Chinese capital account liberalisation were to lead to no reduction in global imbalances, it could still help to lessen some of the adverse consequences relating to these imbalances. There is evidence that reserve accumulation by foreign governments can materially depress the risk-free interest rate in the United States (Warnock and Warnock (2009)) which, in turn, may encourage excessive risk-taking behaviour globally. So to the extent that Chinese capital account liberalisation were to result in a switch in the composition of outflows, away from reserve accumulation by the central bank and towards overseas investment in riskier assets by other Chinese residents, this may reduce some of the downward pressure on government bond yields and related rates i n the United States and globally. Of course, this would bring other challenges. But in the longer term, it could be beneficial for the stability of the international monetary and financial system as a whole. Conclusion If China continues to liberalize its capital account over the next decade or so, it is likely to be a force for development and constancy not just in China but also for the international monetary and financial system. While this process will be companied by new and important risks, it falls to international bodies and national authorities to monitor and take appropriate policy actions to mitigate such risks. This will not be a petty task. As we already know Chinese capital account liberalisation could lead to striking changes in the global financial landscape, policymakers will be facing uncharted territory. In order to succeed, policy cooperation between national authorities is necessary, both to increase understanding of the risks and to develop common policy approaches. Currently the Bank of England is working intimately with the People’s Bank of China regarding the development of offshore renminbi activity in the United Kingdom and will continue to seek other ways to suppo rt a successful integration of China into the global financial system.

Explain why Act 2. Scene 2. is a turning point in the play for Macbeth and Lady Macbeth Essay

Explain why Act 2. Scene 2. Is a turning point in the play for Macbeth and Lady Macbeth. How should the actors playing these characters behave to show the audience what they are feeling? In the First Act we learn that Macbeth is thought of as a very noble, loyal, brave man. â€Å"For brave Macbeth †¦ O valiant cousin, worthy gentlemen!† Macbeth was victorious in a battle on behalf of the kingdom and gets lots of praise from the king, and the other soldiers, and unknown to him is soon be given the title, ‘Thane Of Cawdor’. Banquo and Macbeth are travelling home and they came across 3 witches. These witches prophisize that Macbeth will become Thane of Cawdor and that soon after he will become king. â€Å"All hail Macbeth! Hail to thee, thane of Cawdor! †¦All hail Macbeth! Thalt shalt be King hereafter.† Macbeth doesn’t pay to much attention to them and continues on with his journey, when he returns home, he finds out that the King is coming to stay with him and Lady Macbeth in their castle. Macbeth then finds out of the title and tells Lady Macbeth of the three witches prophesies, and then Lady Macbeth starts to hatch a plan. Macbeth was so horrified of the idea of killing Duncan because in those days, people believed in something, which was called the divine right of kings. Which meant that they believed the king to have been chosen by god. So an attack on King Duncan would have been considered sacrilege. In Act one, Macbeth comes across as brave and loyal, but if he goes through with the murder, he will be forever looking over his shoulder, he will have to watch what he says and does, because he could be found out. This would change his character entirely. Macbeth has to realise that there can be no going back once the murder has been committed. James 1 would have understood and believed in the divine right of kings, so when the play was being written, including it would have been more interesting as the play was originally wrote for James 1, who was king at the time. Scene 2 has to be the most violent part of the play although we don’t actually see the murder in the written play, it is only included in the film version, which we recently watched, directed by Roman Polantski. It is interesting that Macbeth kills King Duncan offstage, the scene could be written this way because Shakespeare wanted us to concentrate on Macbeth’s reaction to the murder, rather than the murder itself. It’s a crucial part in the play as it the first of many murders. The murder takes place on the night of the King’s stay. Everything that happens in the play now is revolved around this scene. This scene is important because it not only features the murder scene. It is also the start of the falling apart of the relationship between Macbeth and Lady Macbeth. There is a lot of tension when we see Lady Macbeth pacing about nervously, waiting for Macbeth to come back. We also see Lady Macbeth’s softer side too when she says â€Å"Had he not resembled my father as he slept, I had done’t† meaning if the King had not looked like her father she would have gone through with the murder herself. I imagine her to be looking quite sad at this point, yet nervous, for fear of still being caught. It reminds us that lady Macbeth still has some humanity because it might help the audience to understand why she does what she does at the end of the play. Lady Macbeth hears an owl screech while she is waiting for Macbeth and jumps, as she is clearly quite nervous even though earlier on in the play she says â€Å"That, which hath made them drunk, hath made me bold.† This is obviously not the case. Lady Macbeth may say this half-jokingly and holding the cup up near to her face, which she drinks it. When Macbeth comes to meet his wife they are both nervous, yet they seem excited to, as they don’t speak in full sentences, it’s a short, sharp exchange of words. â€Å"When† , â€Å"Now† , â€Å"as, I descended† , â€Å"Aye†. His shows the audience that they are worried, nervous etc. They will at this maybe looking around them to see if there is anyone coming, or looking at each other trying to see what the other is thinking. Macbeth also still has hold of the daggers, which makes the tension in the scene increase. Macbeth can’t seem to believe he has committed such a crime as he says, â€Å"This is a sorry sight†. He is also referring to his hands, which are covered in blood, Macbeth must have been putting his head in his hands at this point for him not to notice, therefore holding them up in fr ont of his face. He can’t seem to forget about the murder after this point. He seems obsessed with what he has done and almost in a hypnotising state of mind. Lady Macbeth, although in a way mocks him, she stays calm and says to him â€Å"Go get some water and wash this filthy witness from your hands.† Lady Macbeth is probably pushing him to the fountain and is keeping an eye on him, as so, they won’t get caught. Macbeth knows that he might be able to get rid of the stain from his hands but not from his conscience. He says â€Å"Not all Neptune’s ocean can wash me clean†. Lady Macbeth makes fun of Macbeth for dwelling on the murder and has a go at him for being a coward. Macbeth and his wife seem to lose a connection with each other and Shakespeare has made it obvious that Macbeth is the weaker of the two characters and his and Lady Macbeth’s relationship isn’t going very well. He shows this by having Macbeth ramble on, and say long speeches. But Lady Macbeth stays in control, she acts almost evil and without a conscience. The play seems to build up more tension by Macbeth saying that he thought he had heard a voice saying â€Å"Glamis hath murdered sleep, and therefore shall sleep no more: Macbeth shall sleep no more.† This could be Macbeth’s imagination, or him hearing another of the witches prophesies. The knocking on the door startles Macbeth, as he knows now, this could tell whether his crime is about to be found out or not. Lady Macbeth again keeps her head amongst all of this, although nervous they will be discovered. Lady Macbeth quickly returns the bloodstained daggers to Duncan’s grooms, and goes one further and says, â€Å"If he do bleed, I’ll guild the grooms with Duncan’s blood, for it must seem their guilt.† Shakespeare has her do this to make the audience aware of how much more confident than Macbeth, Lady Macbeth is. Whereas Macbeth is still in shock of the crime he had committed. Shakespeare conveys that Lady Macbeth and Macbeth’s relationship is slowly deteriorating, as Macbeth seems to be acting crazily and Lady Macbeth seems evil and calculating and in control of the situation. The knocking still carrying on, lady Macbeth appears annoyed and urges her husband, to his chamber, where they can hide and come across as innocent to the murder if it is discovered. Shakespeare has once again let Lady Macbeth take control. Shakespeare has cleverly used language and structure of sentences manages to create a lot of tension and excitement in this scene. He uses the right language in the right places to make the characters and the play really believable. Towards the end of the play Macbeth becomes overwhelmed by guilt and fear, he murders anyone he suspects might know. Eventually the heir to crown kills Macbeth, after Lady Macbeth has taken her own life as she is overcome by the guilt. King James and the rest of the Shakespearean audience would have wanted the murders and lies and drama, this is probably what they would have expected. Sacrilege was believed to have been punished by God. Macbeth and Lady Macbeth were the murderers so this would have added excitement; the witches added some eerieness and supernatural theme to the play. These are good choices for the play at that particular time, and it still makes it good today.

The Problem Of Tobacco Cessation And Its Effects On Health...

In an effort to reduce avoidable hospital use and promote a more financially viable and high performing healthcare system, DSRIP has proposed multiple solutions to reach this goal. This program aims at redesigning the Medicaid system through domains that introduce new facets that build off of new or old projects. Domain four primarily deals with the State s Prevention Agenda on its intended influence to population-wide health. A specific project introduced in this domain focuses on promoting tobacco use cessation in low socioeconomic status populations and those with poor mental health. The objective of this prevention project is to decrease the prevalence of cigarette smoking in adults ages 18 and older, along with promoting the use of tobacco cessation services. This includes programs that enhance NYS Smokers Quitline and nicotine replacement products. 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Mr Kan Essay - 873 Words

What are the merits and weakness of inductive, deductive, and hierarchical approaches to accounting system classification? Illustrate your arguments with example. Inductive classification: started with the data about the facts of accounting practices and generate the groups by statistical analysis. Advantages: 1. Supposed to be more objective; 2. Appropriate to detect changes; 3. Replicable. The inductive approach to identifying accounting patterns based on an analysis of individual practices, which supposes to be more objective. According to Da Costa et al (1978)’s research, a principal components analysis is applied to identify seven factors that can explain practices: degree of financial disclosure, company law,†¦show more content†¦Problems arose in the Price Waterhouse surveys with respect to data errors, misleading answers, swamping of important questions by trivial ones, and exaggeration of differences between the US and UK. 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